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The new tech company founded by Jim Elste is developing a system that uses the collective wisdom of a crowd to arrive at a better, more rational decision based on multiple criteria.
Whereas polls use a rigid set of metrics to measure public opinion at a specific point in time, Elste is trying to read the collective wisdom of the crowd using metrics the crowd decides are most relevant.
"The average competitor was probably as well fitted for making a just estimate of the dressed weight of the ox, as an average voter is of judging the merits of most political issues on which he votes," Galton wrote in Nature.
Today, his work forms part of the basis of a recent trend toward valuing and better capturing the collective wisdom of crowds.
The results are ever changing.
Don't be mistaken, Inqiri isn't a public opinion survey.
"The more participation you have, the more valuable this becomes," Elste said. "The more people participate, the more you reach a collective intelligence tipping point."
In a poll, a sample population must be representative of the bigger universe in order to yield an accurate result. Elste's crowd doesn't necessarily have to be representative of a larger population. But it does need to be large, and it definitely needs to be diverse. Otherwise the so called collective wisdom doesn't materialize.
divine the best option from the crowd on many things. For Converse All Star Shoes Price
OK, I'm not sure the proverbial ox even exists, but perhaps it should.
Of the 800 Converse All Star Leather Hi Top Vintage people who submitted a guess, not one hit it correctly. Not even the ranchers and farmers who might be considered experts at eyeballing the weight of a butchered ox.
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The system was originally conceived as a way to help multiple entities arrive at the best way to fend off a cyber attack. Elste's background is in cyber security.
But how do you glean that collective wisdom from a crowd? Particularly when there are far more variables at play than the simple objective weight of a piece of meat.
Galton argued the exercise was a defense of the vox populi the voice of the people.
This story begins with the proverbial ox.
But when all of the legible guesses the researcher Sir Francis Galton threw out 13 as defective were averaged together, the crowd as a whole came closer to guessing the correct weight than any single member.
This is pretty much an experiment so far. Elste is curious whether it will predict the actual outcome, or how candidates or the media might use the results.
"It's a tool to use to determine what the qualifications for mayor should be and who best meets those qualifications," Elste said.
Gauging the crowd's collective wisdom
instance, what is the best Reno neighborhood to relocate to? Which Tahoe Basin ski resort is tops? What's the best car for escaping the zombie apocalypse? (By the way, the crowd picked the Subaru Outback for that one. Can't say that this Subaru driver disagrees.)
The ox I'm talking about was butchered and dressed in 1907. A contest was held at the West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition to guess the weight of the butchered ox.
That's where Reno start up Inqiri (pronounced like inquiry) comes in.
As of Thursday, only 42 people were participating. But the results tended to look how you might expect using traditional political indicators. The frontrunners were two elected officials with built in constituencies and fundraising powers: Councilwoman Hillary Schieve and Washoe Commissioner Marsha Berkbigler. Robert Avery, who is running an energetic campaign, and Ray Pezonella, who is picking up considerable establishment support, rounded out the top Converse All Star Leather Maroon
That means the crowd gets to set the parameters. Take the mayor's race Inqiri. The crowd decides what the most important qualifications for mayor are. At the moment, strategic vision and management skills top the list, which also includes such things as sense of humor, diplomacy, education and persuasiveness.
"This result is, I think, more creditable to the trust worthiness of a democratic judgment than might have been expected," he concluded.
Being the self described "trouble maker" that he is, Elste decided to create an Inqiri on the Reno mayor's race, in which 18 candidates are vying.
In a potential example of the crowd's wisdom, race and gender are ranked dead last in terms of which qualifications are most important.
And this is where you come in.
The crowd can then rate each candidate or simply a few candidates on each qualification. The system then synthesizes the data and ranks each candidate to answer the question: Who should the next mayor of Reno be?
The purpose is to identify the best possible decision, not necessarily just what the collective opinion is at the time.
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